By TON Sri Lanka

The violent populist agitations cannot be the remedy for socio-political problems in any area of the world. Troublesome and fierce populist movements have undoubtedly recorded successes, finishing oppressive regimes and giving the voice to millions to express their dissent forcefully. However, in a long way these movements have been conveyed only partially and also temporarily.

The question that is in the minds of spectators of the “Sri Lankan Aragalaya movement” that will it go the way of similar movements in other countries in the past or will it have a durable constructive effect?

An analysis of the “Arab Spring” drive and the French revolution show that the chaotic conditions created by such movements have eventually, if not immediately, led to the establishment of dictatorships either of persons or clusters. They have also aroused primitive sentiments of ethnicity and religion. Despite loud claims about their efficacy, violent populist movements have not been a remedy for the ills of any civilization.

The “Arab Spring” which was an upsurge of pro-democracy demonstrations and revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa in 2010 and 2011, collapsed popular governments in Tunisia and Egypt, inspiring similar movements in other Arab countries. Yemen saw a revolt in 2011–12, and Libya had a rebellion in 2011.

Nevertheless, the “Arab Spring” proved to be a failure eventually and that too, just quickly. Arab democracy appears further away nowadays than it was at any point in the previous 25 years in Libya, Egypt, Syria, Bahrain, Tunisia, and Yemen.

The aftershock of the Arab Spring went from a bloody civil war to a return of the ancient command. The period of hopefulness had proved strikingly unjustified. Prevalent revolutions are improbable to sweep away old dictators and usher in democracy. The tyrant's clamp down as in Syria, Bahrain or bide their time as in Egypt but they never vanish.

The Arab countries’ backing away from democracy to deep-rooted attachments of the people to their customary ethos and political organism, Islam and nationalism. People’s movements like the “Arab Spring” could end up resurgence feelings for the native culture, traditional customs, and religion. And, due to the instability created by a revolutionary mass movement, there could be a people’s desire for order, which, in turn, could lead to the rise to power of the military or the Islamic clergy. These could be sustained by the socio-economic selected whose power had been snatched away by the widespread people movement.

On July 14, 1789, in Paris, mobs stormed the Bastille, marking the beginning of the French Revolution. The History of the French Revolution recalls that in 1780, a rampaging mob in London had set fire to buildings, causing several hundred deaths. In 1789, French King Louis XVI, facing an unprecedented financial crisis, hiked taxes. This triggered mass protests. Repression was unleashed. But that only triggered more protests.

The storming of the Bastille was a victory for the idea of representative government. It set a precedent: For the first time in modern history, ordinary men and women, through their collective action in the streets, ensured the creation of a constitutional system of democratic government.” However, “within a few years, the French Revolution would also show that crowds could be dangerous, even to governments that claimed to represent the will of the people.

Such protests were the order of the day in France for a long. On June 20, 1792, thousands of armed demonstrators attacked the French imperial palace, where they held the King hostage in his own home for hours. Fewer than two months later, on August 10, 1792, amid rumors that the King and queen were helping the foreign armies that were attacking France, armed battalions of the revolution’s citizen militia, the National Guard attacked the royal palace of the Tuileries.

The elected Assembly thus had no choice except to announce the finishing of the French monarchy. In the subsequent months, that Assembly itself was substituted by the National Convention, the first legislative body to be chosen.

However, even an assembly chosen by the people was not protected from the power of the crowd. From May 31 to June 2, 1793, National Guards and other members of the populace captured the meeting hall of the National Convention and forced the seconds-in-command to eject some of their members, safeguarding the victory of Maximillian Robespierre’s radical political group.

The new democratic constitution the deputies afterward passed proclaimed that when the government disrupts the rights of the people, insurgence is, for the people and every portion of the people, the holiest of rights and the most crucial of duties.

However, Robespierre was overthrown on July 27, 1794. When economic suffering touched its highest in early 1795, enormous demonstrations followed. This time, demonstrators wanted to bring back the kingdom. A young army general, Napoleon Bonaparte, played a crucial role in fighting off the attack. Four years later, he organized the overthrow that put him in power and gestured the conclusion of the French experiment with democracy. Therefore, the French uprising ended up making a military dictator like Napoleon Bonaparte.

More recently, Sri Lanka saw the attacking the houses and offices of President Go and the Prime Minister and the burning of the private residence of the Prime Minister. The uprising, called “Aragalaya” forced the President to flee and Prime Minister to resign. To that degree, it was a success. However, it cannot go beyond that to transform the system. This was because the movement lacked two things. The missing elements are a unified and credible leadership and another strategy to rule the country.

The unclear leadership had given way to radical elements which indulged in violence that had earlier rejected violent social justice movements led by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) in the early 1970s and late 1980s. As the language used by the activists was “bad-mannered and uncivilized” which was rather against the spirit of non-violence.

The State under the new President moved to restore law and order. On Thursday night Lankan troops forced the ousting of activists subjugating the Presidential Secretariat led to protests by human rights groups, the Bar Association of Sri Lanka, and Western diplomats.

US Ambassador tweeted to say that we are deeply concerned about actions taken against protesters at Galle Face in the middle of the night and urge restraint by the authorities and immediate access to medical attention for those injured. The Canadian High Commissioner tweeted to say that it is crucial the authorities act with restraint and avoid violence.

Many things depend on how the “Aragalaya” activists and the government performs in the upcoming days. However, the most crucial factor is the reaction of the public regarding these events. That could determine the future of both the “government and the Aragalaya”.

CAIRO, 25 July 2022, (TON): The US special envoy for the Horn of Africa began a regional tour to resolve tensions caused by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Mike Hammer will hold talks in Egypt, the UAE and Ethiopia until Aug. 1, according to the US State Department.

The GERD has raised tensions between Ethiopia on one hand and Egypt and Sudan on the other.

The latter two countries are demanding a legally binding agreement on the filling and operation of the dam, which they fear will reduce their share of Nile waters.

Hammer’s regional tour coincides with that of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who is visiting Egypt, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

SHANGHAI, 25 July 2022, (TON): The company said “China’s homegrown C919 narrow-body jet, designed to challenge the Airbus-Boeing duopoly, is nearing certification as its test planes completed all of the test flight tasks.”

The state-owned manufacturer Commercial Aircraft Corp of China said “on its official social media account that the six test planes have finished the testing tasks as the programme enters the final stage of receiving a certificate from the Civil Aviation Administration of China which is required for commercial operations.”

That would mark a milestone in China’s ambitions to climb up the manufacturing supply chain.

China’s COMAC is now effectively the third option in the market for planes with more than 100 seats, after Boeing and Airbus struck deals to take over production of rival planes made by Embraer and Bombardier.

LOS ANGELES, 25 July 2022, (TON): A California wildfire ripped through thousands of acres after being sparked a day earlier, as millions of Americans sweltered through scorching heat with already record-setting temperatures due to climb.

The heat wave encompassing multiple regions has increased the risk of blazes, such as the major Oak Fire, which broke out Friday in California near Yosemite National Park, where giant sequoias have already been threatened by flames in recent days.

The fire described as explosive by officials grew from about 600 acres to around 11,900 acres within 24 hours. Concentrated in Mariposa County, it has already destroyed ten properties and damaged five others, with thousands more threatened.

More than 6,000 people had been evacuated, said Hector Vasquez, a California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection official, as the fire remained uncontained as of Saturday evening.

LONDON, 25 July 2022, (TON): Rishi Sunak on Sunday promised to get tough on China if he becomes Britain’s next prime minister, calling the Asian superpower the number one threat to domestic and global security.

The former finance minister’s pledge comes after his rival in the final two of the race to lead the ruling Conservative party, Liz Truss, accused him of being weak on China and Russia.

China’s state-run news agency has previously said “Sunak was the only candidate in the contest with a clear and pragmatic view on developing UK-China ties.”

The Daily Mail, which has come out for Foreign Secretary Truss in the race to succeed Boris Johnson, called “the endorsement that nobody wanted.”

JAKARTA, 25 July 2022, (TON): The top U.S. military officer said during a trip to the Indo-Pacific “the Chinese military has become significantly more aggressive and dangerous over the past five years.”

U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the number of intercepts by Chinese aircraft and ships in the Pacific region with U.S. and other partner forces has increased significantly over that time, and the number of unsafe interactions has risen by similar proportions.

Milley said “the message is the Chinese military, in the air and at sea, have become significantly more and noticeably more aggressive in this particular region.”

His comments came as the U.S. redoubles efforts to strengthen its relationships with Pacific nations as a counterbalance to China, which is trying to expand its presence and influence in the region.

CAIRO, 25 July 2022, (TON): President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi received Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Cairo.

The latter’s spokesman said “Lavrov delivered a message from Russian President Vladimir Putin to El-Sisi that expressed the importance Moscow attaches to consolidating its ties with Egypt.”

Lavrov briefed El-Sisi on the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. They also discussed cooperation in food supply and the oil and gas sector.

El-Sisi stressed the importance of prioritizing dialogue and diplomacy to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the interest of international security and stability, and expressed Cairo’s support for all such efforts.

MOSCOW, 25 July 2022, (TON): Russian forces have destroyed a Ukrainian warship and US-supplied Harpoon anti-ship missiles in the Ukrainian port of Odesa, Russian news agencies quoted the defense ministry as saying.

“A docked Ukrainian warship and a warehouse with US-supplied Harpoon anti-ship missiles were destroyed by long-range precision-guided naval missiles in Odesa seaport on the territory of a ship repair plant.”

The Ukrainian military had said Russian missiles hit the southern port, threatening a deal signed just one day earlier to unblock grain exports from Black Sea ports and ease global food shortages caused by the war.

RIYADH, 25 July 2022, (TON): Saudi Press Agency reported “King Salman was given Kazakhstan’s highest award during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to the Kingdom.”

The award, the Order of the Golden Eagle, was given to King Salman as an expression of pride and appreciation in the deep-rooted relations between the two countries.

The award was received on behalf of the king by the Kingdom’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan during a meeting with the president.

Prince Faisal thanked the president on behalf of King Salman.Tokayev is currently in the Kingdom and arrived.

KUWAIT CITY, 25 July 2022, (TON): Kuwait named the emir's son Sheikh Ahmad Nawaf Al-Sabah as prime minister, replacing caretaker premier Sheikh Sabah Al-Khalid.

Sheikh Ahmad was deputy prime minister and interior minister in the outgoing government, which had submitted its resignation in April.

In his late 60s, he began his career with the police force and then entered the interior ministry. After his father Emir Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmad took power in 2020 he was appointed deputy head of the National Guard.

He was named interior minister, and a deputy prime minister, in March after his predecessor resigned.