By TON Sri Lanka

The violent populist agitations cannot be the remedy for socio-political problems in any area of the world. Troublesome and fierce populist movements have undoubtedly recorded successes, finishing oppressive regimes and giving the voice to millions to express their dissent forcefully. However, in a long way these movements have been conveyed only partially and also temporarily.

The question that is in the minds of spectators of the “Sri Lankan Aragalaya movement” that will it go the way of similar movements in other countries in the past or will it have a durable constructive effect?

An analysis of the “Arab Spring” drive and the French revolution show that the chaotic conditions created by such movements have eventually, if not immediately, led to the establishment of dictatorships either of persons or clusters. They have also aroused primitive sentiments of ethnicity and religion. Despite loud claims about their efficacy, violent populist movements have not been a remedy for the ills of any civilization.

The “Arab Spring” which was an upsurge of pro-democracy demonstrations and revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa in 2010 and 2011, collapsed popular governments in Tunisia and Egypt, inspiring similar movements in other Arab countries. Yemen saw a revolt in 2011–12, and Libya had a rebellion in 2011.

Nevertheless, the “Arab Spring” proved to be a failure eventually and that too, just quickly. Arab democracy appears further away nowadays than it was at any point in the previous 25 years in Libya, Egypt, Syria, Bahrain, Tunisia, and Yemen.

The aftershock of the Arab Spring went from a bloody civil war to a return of the ancient command. The period of hopefulness had proved strikingly unjustified. Prevalent revolutions are improbable to sweep away old dictators and usher in democracy. The tyrant's clamp down as in Syria, Bahrain or bide their time as in Egypt but they never vanish.

The Arab countries’ backing away from democracy to deep-rooted attachments of the people to their customary ethos and political organism, Islam and nationalism. People’s movements like the “Arab Spring” could end up resurgence feelings for the native culture, traditional customs, and religion. And, due to the instability created by a revolutionary mass movement, there could be a people’s desire for order, which, in turn, could lead to the rise to power of the military or the Islamic clergy. These could be sustained by the socio-economic selected whose power had been snatched away by the widespread people movement.

On July 14, 1789, in Paris, mobs stormed the Bastille, marking the beginning of the French Revolution. The History of the French Revolution recalls that in 1780, a rampaging mob in London had set fire to buildings, causing several hundred deaths. In 1789, French King Louis XVI, facing an unprecedented financial crisis, hiked taxes. This triggered mass protests. Repression was unleashed. But that only triggered more protests.

The storming of the Bastille was a victory for the idea of representative government. It set a precedent: For the first time in modern history, ordinary men and women, through their collective action in the streets, ensured the creation of a constitutional system of democratic government.” However, “within a few years, the French Revolution would also show that crowds could be dangerous, even to governments that claimed to represent the will of the people.

Such protests were the order of the day in France for a long. On June 20, 1792, thousands of armed demonstrators attacked the French imperial palace, where they held the King hostage in his own home for hours. Fewer than two months later, on August 10, 1792, amid rumors that the King and queen were helping the foreign armies that were attacking France, armed battalions of the revolution’s citizen militia, the National Guard attacked the royal palace of the Tuileries.

The elected Assembly thus had no choice except to announce the finishing of the French monarchy. In the subsequent months, that Assembly itself was substituted by the National Convention, the first legislative body to be chosen.

However, even an assembly chosen by the people was not protected from the power of the crowd. From May 31 to June 2, 1793, National Guards and other members of the populace captured the meeting hall of the National Convention and forced the seconds-in-command to eject some of their members, safeguarding the victory of Maximillian Robespierre’s radical political group.

The new democratic constitution the deputies afterward passed proclaimed that when the government disrupts the rights of the people, insurgence is, for the people and every portion of the people, the holiest of rights and the most crucial of duties.

However, Robespierre was overthrown on July 27, 1794. When economic suffering touched its highest in early 1795, enormous demonstrations followed. This time, demonstrators wanted to bring back the kingdom. A young army general, Napoleon Bonaparte, played a crucial role in fighting off the attack. Four years later, he organized the overthrow that put him in power and gestured the conclusion of the French experiment with democracy. Therefore, the French uprising ended up making a military dictator like Napoleon Bonaparte.

More recently, Sri Lanka saw the attacking the houses and offices of President Go and the Prime Minister and the burning of the private residence of the Prime Minister. The uprising, called “Aragalaya” forced the President to flee and Prime Minister to resign. To that degree, it was a success. However, it cannot go beyond that to transform the system. This was because the movement lacked two things. The missing elements are a unified and credible leadership and another strategy to rule the country.

The unclear leadership had given way to radical elements which indulged in violence that had earlier rejected violent social justice movements led by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) in the early 1970s and late 1980s. As the language used by the activists was “bad-mannered and uncivilized” which was rather against the spirit of non-violence.

The State under the new President moved to restore law and order. On Thursday night Lankan troops forced the ousting of activists subjugating the Presidential Secretariat led to protests by human rights groups, the Bar Association of Sri Lanka, and Western diplomats.

US Ambassador tweeted to say that we are deeply concerned about actions taken against protesters at Galle Face in the middle of the night and urge restraint by the authorities and immediate access to medical attention for those injured. The Canadian High Commissioner tweeted to say that it is crucial the authorities act with restraint and avoid violence.

Many things depend on how the “Aragalaya” activists and the government performs in the upcoming days. However, the most crucial factor is the reaction of the public regarding these events. That could determine the future of both the “government and the Aragalaya”.