By Afshain Afzal
On the request of Turkish President Erdogany both side have agreed in principle to halt attacks and the start ceasefire negotiations but an agreement is still far away. Turkey has categorically rejected military action and is using its diplomacy to resolve the crisis. There is no doubt that Turkey has a big role to play and of course, deploying Turkish forces in conflict zone will further aggravate the situation. Earlier, Turkish Parliament passed resolution and agreed formally that Russia’s military operation against Ukraine is wrong, and that Ukraine’s territorial integrity should be ensured. Accordingly, Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement said, “We consider the military operation launched by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation against Ukraine unacceptable and reject it.”
While analysing the prevailing situation, it need to be comprehended that we cannot take Turkey as a NATO member alone as her status is much higher than her recognition as a NATO member. If we recall, in February 2020, during visit to Ukraine, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ukrainian President Zelensky signed an agreement on military-financial cooperation, in which Turkey allocated about US $ 36 million for the purchase of Turkish military and multi-purpose goods. Turkey is a power and has capacity to deploy its forces to become a party to conflict to save Muslim population. In addition, under the Montreux Convention of 1936, Turkey can limit Russian naval transit of its Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits during wartime but Turkey has not decided to do that and Russian ships's movement from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea would not be much affected. It is apparently that the United States’ and Western nations' stance over Ukrainian crisis is different from Turkey and Istanbul is not going to follow any dictated approach to the crisis.
In fact, Russia as well as the United States were aggrieved over Turkish involvement that empowers Muslim population in Ukraine as well its strategic links with the Ukrainian leadership. Russia is also cautious over Washington's direct interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine and has warned Kyiv many times not to destablize neighbourhood but interference increased. Finally, this led to friction and intervention with an aim to reach a promised agreement between Ukraine and Russia.Turkish military agreement with Ukraine coupled with Western media hysterical propaganda that painted picture if United States is trying to take over the stage of Ukrainian politics; from interference through the third country to direct plans, Russia was quick enough to position its troops at three major strategic avenues where Muslims were in high concentration. Eight Russian warships and two submarine entered Black Sea to show muscles.
NATO and the European nations made tall announcements of continuous supply of arms and ammunitions to the Ukrainian forces but these attempts were either not initialized nor materialized. Any shipment through sea could trigger World War - III, which US, NATO and West could not afford. From the very outset, not much was expected from the West. Military intervention to check Russian deployment in Ukraine was out of question but leaving Ukraine at the mercy of Russian soldiers was also not accepted. It was Uzbek Muslim from the neighbouring countries which ensured the continuity of arms and other supplies to Ukrainian forces, in order to bring Russian on negotiating table. Presently neither there are fears of full-scale battles nor chances of West jumping in the war across Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin defended the invasion of Ukraine, saying it was "going to plan". Russia made it clear that she would continue its campaign in Ukraine until it had fulfilled its goals. Earlies Moscow with the consent of Ukrainian President allowed truce to a level that set pockets for humanitarian corridors for the civilian evacuations. The term of truce was confirmed by Ukrainian Presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak.
Till now the only progress is that negotiators from both Ukraine and Russia have agreed to create “humanitarian corridors” to let citizens escape the fighting. Earlier rounds of talks between Ukraine and Russia failed and an attempt this weekend is also likely not to gain much. Now Turkey has the main role to play in Ukraine and in the same regard Ukrainian leadership are schedule to hold talks in Turkey early next week. Venue has been set at Antalya, Turkey where Russian and Ukrainian ministers would hold peace negotiations. An honest opinion that it seems that all were on one side to expel many immigrants who had settled in Ukraine from other countries since decades. Although exagurated figures were reflected everywhere about the refugees but several thousands refugees from Ukraine are sufferings while the onus of this human catastrophe rest on Russia.