Nishat Shuja

South Asian states are becoming water-scarce owing to their population growth. As of 2022, the frequent and extreme heatwaves have further increased water scarcity in states like Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. The shortage of water will ultimately affect the farmers and lead to food scarcity as well.

Dhaka is at the risk of depleting its freshwater resources because it does not have adequate mechanisms for freshwater extraction. The situation is very alarming, according to the Director of groundwater hydrology of the Bangladeshi water development board, Anwar Zahid. Agriculture and industries would suffer due to the depletion of water resources. Other states such as Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, and even China are also at risk of this.

At such a time, India maintains its water hegemony over the smaller states of the region. India strives for regional hegemony at the expense of smaller states of South Asia. Ideally, it should be in stable bilateral relations with those states, instead, it is exploiting the weaker powers.

With Bangladesh, India maintains an upper hand on the water sharing mechanism. Ganges river is the main source of water for India and it flows into the Padma river in Bangladesh. The Padma river is the main source of water for Bangladesh’s industry and agriculture. The state is highly dependent on this river. India constructed a barrage roughly 17kms upstream from the border of Bangladesh on the Ganges river in West Bengal. Farakka barrage was constructed in 1975 which disturbed the flow of water to Bangladesh. It was an event of illegal withdrawal of water by India and highlighted the exploitative tendencies of Indian hegemony in the region.

Similarly, India constructed a tunnel to divert the flow of water from the Kishanganga river. Pakistan contested India’s decision as it violated the 1962 Indus Basin treaty. India went ahead and completed the construction project nevertheless in 2016. The project disturbed the water flow to the downstream areas of Pakistan administered Kashmir. In April 2022, World Bank announced to resume the arbitration process over this issue. It is an example of water hegemony by the Indian state which is yet to be resolved.

Bangladesh, being an agrarian economy suffered from decreased water flow for its irrigation. The Farakka barrage was called “Death Barrage” by Bangladeshi scholars owing to its destructive tendencies on the economy and ecology of Bangladesh. The issue developed into a full-scale dispute between the two states and eventually a water-sharing agreement was reached. After 1975, the dry season flow of water into Bangladesh reduced significantly because of India’s selfish acts. Both states tried to avert a conflict by making efforts toward a water-sharing agreement. The 1996 Ganges River treaty was signed as a response, and is due to expire in 2026. The treaty was signed just as Sheikh Hasina came to power and thawed Bangladesh’s relations with India.

Through the treaty, India gave Bangladesh an equal share of the Ganges without taking into account that Ganges-Padma is the main source of irrigation for the state while India has plenty of other transboundary rivers. It also did not consider the environmental factors in the long run. It was a very short-sighted yet long-term treaty that only decreased Bangladeshi grievances and prevented a conflict. The political factions in Bangladesh opposed the treaty for its exploitative tendencies. The government of the Awami League under Sheikh Hasina Wajid has always been appeasing India. The appeasement resulted as a response to India’s role in the Bangladesh liberation war of 1971. It has only allowed the regional giant to become even more exploitative.

Now that the treaty is about to come to end in 4 years, the debate has emerged again in Bangladesh. 26 years ago, these states did not consider the climatic factor, economy, and social aspects while dividing the water of the Ganges. The condition of climate change has only worsened in those 2 decades. It will be even more difficult and unfair for Bangladesh to survive with the disrupted flow of water.

Bangladesh is facing an extreme water crisis at present. The crisis is directly related to the grain damage, soil erosion, deforestation, and even depletion of wildlife dependent on water. When the Ganges River treaty expires in 2026, the possible new water-sharing agreement will have to allocate more water resources to Bangladesh to combat the economic and ecological challenges. There is a possibility of the dispute becoming active again now that the treaty is in its final stage.

The opposition of the Bangladeshi government will put pressure on it to demand more water resources since the state is extremely dependent on the water of the Padma river. The pro-India government of Sheikh Hasina will face tremendous pressure at home to take a harder stance against India.

The Indian water hegemony has been established through a combination of consent and coercion. This type of hegemony is not only inhumane, but it is also unfair. The people of Bangladesh will soon run out of adequate freshwater resources. This issue has the potential to develop into a full-scale conflict if both sides do not sign a fair water-sharing mechanism of the Ganges while keeping into account the environmental factors.