By AR Javaria

Afghanistan was always an important country for the US. It emerged as a major US foreign policy concern in 2001, when the United States led a military campaign against Al Qaeda and the Taliban government in Afghanistan, following the terrorist attacks by US national of non-Afghan foreign origin Muslims on 11 September 2001. In the 19 years since then, the US claims to have suffered more than 22,000 military causalities including 2,400 deaths. However, the actual figures are much higher. The war has cause over 1.6 million deaths of civilian men, women and children, beside millions of refugees to leave the country for safer locations.

US withdrawal might trigger a new conflict and ultimately enable the Taliban to regain control.

In the light of the approaching situation as a result of the war in Afghanistan which lasts for more than eighteen years. Although Taliban had resisted direct talks with the afghan government as they call it American puppet but on 29 February 2020, after a year of official negotiations between the representatives of the United States and the Taliban, both parties signed an agreement on the withdrawal of the US army from Afghanistan and the talks between Kabul and Taliban leading up to the end of a war. Representatives of Afghanistan’s government were not involved in US-Taliban talks. Taliban agreed to start talks with the afghan government in March 2020.

After months of delays, on 12 September, 2020, Afghan government and Taliban representatives officially met in Doha, Qatar, to begin their first direct peace negotiations toward such a settlement. This is a significant moment with potential dramatic consequences during the current Afghan conflict. After the discussion of nine rounds, negotiators signed a peace agreement in February 2020 that addresses four main issue including cease fire in which they agreed to a temporary reduction in violence and the withdrawal of foreign forces. The United states agreed to reduce its number of troops in the country from roughly 12000 to 8600 within 135 days. As part of the agreement, the Taliban guaranteed that Afghanistan will not be used by any of its members, other individuals, or terrorist groups to threaten the security of the United States and its allies.

In January 2021, the Trump Administration reported that it had reduced U.S. forces in Afghanistan along with the full military withdrawal by May 2021 as they committed this in U.S.-Taliban agreement which was signed in February 2020. In the accord, the two sides agreed to two “interconnected” guarantees: the withdrawal of all U.S. and international forces by May 2021, and unspecified Taliban action to prevent other groups (including Al Qaeda). Other U.S. commitments included facilitating a prisoner exchange between the Taliban and the Afghan government, and removing U.S. sanctions on Taliban members.

Discussions do not seem to have progressed and continue to be complicated by a number of factors including high levels of violence. Since the agreement, U.S. officials have asserted that the Taliban are not fulfilling their commitments under the accord, especially with regard to Al Qaeda. U.S. officials also describe increased Taliban violence as “not consistent” with the agreement. Although no provisions in the agreement address. The level of violence in Afghanistan has markedly increased in the last year, especially in Kabul. These killings have included not only military personnel, but also journalists, government officials, aid workers, and university students.

The Taliban have denied having anything to do with the increased violence or terrorism. While the Taliban, no doubt, bare responsibility for those killings occurred on account of counter attack or retaliation of attacks on their members, it proves that that other groups are involved in terrorism. Specifically, the Islamic State insurgents are active in parts of Afghanistan and have been known to attack religious groups that do not adhere to their strict Islamic beliefs. This includes members of the Sikh and Hindu communities and, more importantly, Shia Afghans who have been the targets of recent attacks.

For years the afghan government and its US sponsors have blamed Pakistan for supporting the Taliban revolution. The Americans under trump have become increasingly aggressive towards Pakistan, threatening retaliatory measures to force its cooperation in Afghanistan. With the Taliban in power, these accusations may lie down. No people in the world except the people of Pakistan have paid a higher price for the conflict in Afghanistan, with the exception of the resilient Afghans themselves. Pakistan has taking the responsibility of more than 4 million afghan refugees, this war has disrupted the Pakistani economy radicalized fringes of the society.

Pakistan’s role in the Afghan Peace Process between the US, the afghan government and the Taliban is very crucial. Pakistan will continue to support the Afghan people in their quest for a unified, independent and sovereign Afghanistan that is at peace with itself and its neighbors. Pakistan believes that peace negotiations should not be conducted under coercion and urges all parties to reduce violence. Just as the Afghan government has recognized the Taliban as a political reality, it is hoped that the Taliban would recognize the progress Afghanistan has made.

Afghanistan appears stuck. The negotiations with the Taliban are on hold, the level of violence is high, a new administration in Washington is reexamining its commitment to Kabul, and the call for an interim government is growing. Kabul now waits to see what the new Biden team will do. If the Biden team moves to renegotiate the agreement with the Taliban and keep American troops in Afghanistan beyond this May, then Kabul and President Ghani can relax, although not for long. However, if the Biden team decides to honor the February 2020 agreement and remove American troops from Afghanistan by May of 2021, then the Taliban will have won and the Ghani government in Kabul will be in a very difficult position. Afghanistan has been at war for over 40 years, with 20 of those years involving the United States. While the end of Afghanistan’s troubles is in sight, the final ending still remains distant.

The leading question that comes to mind with regards to the role of Pakistan as a facilitator between the afghan peace process as it is near to its conclusion is that: what Pakistan is going to get out of a stable Afghanistan? It obviously wants to dispel the international community’s perception of Pakistan as a state sponsoring terrorism that provides safe heaven, intelligence and military aid to terrorist groups. As a result Pakistan will benefit more from adopting this role. However it would be foolish to assume that once the peace process concludes, the region would stabilize overnight. The challenges to Pakistan’s national security will continue for years after. Thus, it is imperative that Pakistan adopts a concrete foreign policy in Afghanistan and continues to monitor the socio-economic and political landscape to mitigate the effects of the said challenges.