By Afshain Afzal

November this year, Indian Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Bipin Rawat issued a statement, “China has become India's biggest security threat and the tens of thousands of troops and weaponry that New Delhi rushed to secure the de-facto Himalayan border last year will not be able to return to base for a long time”. The 13th round of border talks between Indian and Chinese military commanders ended in a stalemate as both sides couldn't agree on how to pull back from the border. But few day later both India and China agreed to hold the 14th round of Corps Commander level talks in mid December 2021, to achieve the objective of complete disengagement of the remaining friction points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh. The Inside Story from reliable quarters reveal a breakthrough has been achieved, at least the withdrawal of Chinese and Indian troops from advance positions. Pentagon took it as a serious breach of trust over Indian invitation of Russian President and striking multi million dollar arms deal, purchasing Russian Air Defence System and other equipment.

Against the backdrop of the Southeast Asian states’ growing tensions with China around its claim of the entire South China Sea, the recent maneuvers by US and Russia has made the situation more complex. General Bipin Rawat’s semi-neutral position against American interests, even over the disputes along the South China Sea involving China and countries of Southeast Asia has always remained a matter of criticism at White House and Pentagon. Growing strategic-military partnerships with the littoral states, Indian involvement in achieving long term strategic goals including oil exploitation in these waters and military and diplomatic discussions resulted in passage of disheartening signals at Washington. The escalating Sino - US tug of war with strategic engagement between Russia and India has created bad taste back at Washington. Russian closer ties with China and now Navy Exercise “ARNEX” with the bloc that comprises 10 countries including Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar and Brunei gave a strong negative message to the Western players in so called Indo - Pacific Command.

It is probably a matter of concern that both US and Russia conducted Navy exercises at the same time at Bay of Bengal and Strait of Malacca early this December. The US, during US-Bangladesh Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT) series, CARAT Bangladesh 2021, positioned combat ship USS Tulsa (LCS 16) and embarked MH-60S Seahawk helicopter of Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron while Bangladesh carried out real time trialed Scorpion II advanced radar electronic countermeasures system. On the other hand Russia positioned anti-submarine ship Admiral Panteleev during Exercise “ARNEX”. A Bangladeshi participant of the exercise on the condition of anonymity claimed that they experienced locking by Indian Air Defence System and other monitoring equipment from the Western side of Bay of Bengal during the exercise.

 It is too early to confirm if General Bipin Rawat helicopter crash was a retaliation or not. US US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said over the crash of Indian top military General, “My deep condolences on the deaths of Indian Chief of Defence Staff General Rawat, his wife and colleagues who perished in today's tragic accident," and "He was a strong friend and partner of the US, overseeing a major expansion of India''s defence cooperation with the US military. His legacy will continue on.” If we carryout analysis of recent Indian helicopter crash, there is no doubt that crashed-helicopter’s voice recorder and a flight data recorder will give some idea but this should be kept in mind that India doesn't have capability to decode flight data recorder “Black Box” and have to rely on Western interpretation. The helicopter in question was Russian-made Mi17 fleet, acquired and inducted between 2008 and 2018.These are considered as highly reliable and well maintained. The ground position is that the helicopter carrying Indian top military leadership took off from Indian Airforce Station, New Delhi at 0847 hours on 8 December 2021 and landed at Indian Airforce Station, Sulur at 1134 hours. It took off from Sulur to Wellington at 1147 hours and was scheduled to land at Wellington but at 1222 hours, Air Traffic Controller (ATC) lost contact with the helicopter and at 1222 hours, 35 minutes after take-off, the helicopter crashed. Eyewitnesses claimed that they saw helicopter on fire and people falling down from the helicopter. Another witness said, the helicopter crashed at Khatri near Coonoor as it hit into a tree and immediately caught fire. But the other witnesses claimed that the helicopter was already on fir when it hit tree or the ground. Airforce authorities said the helicopter crashed less than 20 kilometers from Wellington Defense College.

A tri-service inquiry has been ordered by the IAF and it will be headed by Air Marshal Manvendra Singh, Air Officer Commanding-in-Chief Training Command. In a statement Air Marshal Manvendra Singh said, "uninformed speculation should be avoided as facts will be made public soon". There are allegations that Russian and Indian were monitoring US-Bangladesh exercise through testing and locking equipment from Indian land, sea and space. However, these allegations, apparently, are unfounded as so far other then communication intercepts there are no ground evidences. There are strong leads of sabotage as some witnesses claimed that they saw people strated falling from the helicopter. There are reports that an Israeli Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) that jammed the controls of the helicopter and caused component failures including failure or loss of navigation system, that bars recognition of turbulence and other bad weather conditions, such as fog, dust, debris and other hazards. Meanwhile, the Airforce authorities tweeted, “IAF has constituted a tri-service Court of Inquiry to investigate the cause of the tragic helicopter accident on 08 Dec 21. The inquiry would be completed expeditiously & facts brought out. Till then, to respect the dignity of the deceased, uninformed speculation may be avoided”. It is too early to pronounce anything with confidence but some serious matter is pending that was shared by Israelis with Indian Army Chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane during his November 2021 visit to Tel Aviv. One wonders it is time to realize that we have to work for peace in Indian Ocean Region and world at large rather than converting battleground for world powers.