By S. Sultan

Recently, some months, Bangladeshi opposition parties, especially the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), are holding demonstrations throughout the country against the government. As Bangladesh has experiencing political instability and consistent general strikes, as the ruling Bangladesh Awami League (BAL) which has also started cracked down on public demonstrations by opposition parties in recent months.

The presence of opposition on the street with hundreds of thousands joining opposition rallies symbols a change in the country’s political land mark. In response to the demonstrations, the BAL has arranged transport strikes to prevent citizens from joining the anti-government demonstrations. The incumbent reportedly attacked rally participants and recently imposed limitations on the flow of information and movement.

Bangladesh’s rising economic crisis has contributed to the growing political discontent and intensification of these anti-government demonstrations.  The upsurge in public demonstrations reflects the increased anger about the BAL’s despotic style of governance and fears about how it may handle the upcoming general elections. The mounting face-off between the government and the opposition is expected to lead to heightened ferocity in the coming months, further persecution of opponents by the government, and the potential fading of the ruling party’s grip over the deteriorating economic condition.

The worsening economic crisis may create a large pool of dissatisfied citizens who may come to streets to register their protests, while the ruling party will try to keep the situation under its control by all ways and means. Bangladesh is facing a rising financial crisis, which has raised the political dissent. The recent protests began after the government announced price rise to the fuel and energy sectors in August, snowballing overnight fuel prices by more than 50 percent.

The unparalleled hike came on the heels of growing costs of essentials. Despite recurrent pledges from international organizations and local experts that the country is not in an economic crisis, the failure in foreign exchange reserves, a descending trend of payments, and a trade deficit indicate hard times ahead is highly visible. Inflation has reached its highest in decades. According to a World Bank report, Bangladesh has experienced the highest price rise of basics commodities in South Asian countries.

Progressing blackouts have reached to an unprecedented level, as government offices, banks, and even schools are now required to close and reduce hours to save energy. Power outages have increased after a national grid failure in early October, which left 80 percent of the country in the darkness for hours. Fuel shortages render Bangladesh’s power plants impracticable, causing severe load-shedding disrupting industrial production, and price hikes of daily necessities and wage cuts. The recent past is a clear evident of economic misconduct, cronyism, and unmaintainable infrastructure in Bangladesh history.

The rising protests have challenged the BAL’s control over the management and politics, which has been consolidated over the past decade. Elections in 2014 and 2018, described by international media and observers as highly engineered, delivered unprecedented victories to BAL’s , who now holds power for the third consecutive term since 2009. Human rights groups have documented the increasing incidences of human rights defilements under the incumbent PM administration since 2009, such as extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances.

The outgoing Chief of the UN Human Rights Council raised concerns during her visit to Bangladesh in August 2022. The United States Treasury enacted sanctions on the elite police force called the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and seven of its current and former officers in December 2021. The Bangladesh government’s response to these concerns has consisted of annoying families of the victims, targeting families of expat critics, silencing human rights organizations, and pleasing alleged rights violators.

Since the beginning of these demonstrations, the government has intensified persecuting opposition activists and critics such as in July and August, offices and houses of opposition leaders were raided, several activists died, and thousands have been arrested. Nevertheless, the demonstrations have still gained strength, as revealed in the size of the recent gatherings.

The Bangladeshi government recently procured technology that will intercept encrypted messages in the popular messaging service called Telegram, adding to its existing sophisticated surveillance capacity. The government has also declared 29 government institutions as Critical Information Infrastructure (CII), and deemed access to these punishable offenses under the draconian Digital Security Act (DSA). The DSA, which came into effect in October 2018, has been used by the government and its supporters to suppress dissent. The government has accused at least 2,889 persons under the law until August 2022.

There are serious concerns about what the next election will be held and the ability of Bangladeshi citizens to cast their votes freely. The actions of the Election Commission (EC), which is responsible for holding elections, have indicated that its capability to organize free and inclusive elections might be in query. Appointed in February 2022, the new Election Commission (EC) has yet to gain the trust of voters or opposition political parties.

During elections in the northern district of Gaibandha on October 12, the EC halted voting due to “wrongdoings” after ruling party candidates captured almost all the polling stations. However, the EC didn’t take safeguards to stop obvious rigging, failed to deter the ruling party supporters on the day of voting and the local administration didn’t act neutrally. A fair and inclusive election in Bangladesh is unlikely unless the government makes reforms to ensure a level playing field.

The EC has decided to introduce Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) in half of the 300 parliamentary constituencies after the Prime Minister suggested that EVMs will be fully available by the next election cycle. Though civil society organizations and a majority of opposition political parties have objected using EVMs, the EC paid little care to their concerns. Taka 8,711 crore (approximately US$ 870 million) has been allocated to buy EVMs, which do not have a voter-verifiable paper audit trail (VVPAT) system.

Opposition parties have also insisted that they will not join the election under the government led by The Current PM but the BAL is in no mood to agree the demand. Support for holding elections under a neutral government has grown among citizens after the 2018 election due to the lack of impartiality of civil administration, the Election Commission (EC), and law enforcement agencies.

The situation is no different this time also, as the law enforcing agencies continue to act in favor of the BAL. The government’s recent decision to send a high-ranking civil servant and three police officials into “forced retirement” to sway both administration and police I the upcoming election. A fair and comprehensive election in Bangladesh is unlikely unless the government makes reforms to ensure a level impartially.

Growing discontent with the economy and frustrations about authoritarian governance are also pushing the citizens at the brink of collapse. While the incumbent government seems to confront the opposition with force, which means more crackdowns on the opposition and the suppression of dissenting voices in the coming months. All these trends shows a volatile future for Bangladeshi politics amid economic woes increase and ordinary people continue to economically suffer heavily.