By Saneem Afshain
Unparalleled floods in Pakistan in recent month received the highest rainfall and melting glaciers which, left a third of the country inundated under water and affected nearly 33 million people. The floods have also caused extensive destruction, with crops as well as private and public infrastructure devastated. The country now faces humanitarian and health crises. Its rebuilding will be an enormous task for this developing country, which was already struggling frugally.
This is only one of some extreme climate events to upset South Asia this year. After Bangladesh earlier this summer, Nepal is now fighting floods and landslides. India and Pakistan also suffered a heavy heat wave. Moreover, to destroying crops, it also affected electricity shortages and famine. Unluckily, these trials are only early displays of what South Asia must prepare itself for in the future. Climate change has already become a consistent crisis for this deeply inhabited region.
South Asia is a disaster-hit region on the forefronts of Climate Change. By one evaluation, the Indo-Pacific is prone more probable than Africa and Europe. South Asia is a mainly disaster-prone region, as climate-related hydro meteorological disasters such as overflows, hurricanes, heat waves, and droughts are becoming more recurrent and more severe in the region. These upsurge water scarcity, food insecurity, and poverty, and often result in health crises. Apart from the severe human costs of these weather disasters, countries in the region will also face massive economic costs. According to one report, rising heat and humidity could reduce India’s GDP by about 2.5-4.5 percent by 2030, equivalent to roughly USD 150-250 billion.
According to a recent report by the Asian Development Bank estimates that natural disasters displaced people 221 million times during the past decade across the Asia-Pacific, including 5 million displacements by cyclone alone in South Asia in 2020. In 2021 of which 4.9 million were in India. This year’s numbers will undoubtedly be much higher, and the number of people exposed to natural disasters is increasing by about 3.5 percent each year.
Climate change is also snowballing internal migration. As some areas become harder to live in due to water paucity or sea level rise, and financial chances become rarer, people move to other areas in search of a healthier life. Unless satisfactory action is taken immediately, there may be as many as 40 million interior climate refugees in South Asia. Frequently people move to major cities in search of economic opportunities. Unfortunately, this will further burden mega cities like Delhi and Mumbai, which already suffer from poor infrastructure, increasing pollution, and environmental degradation.
South Asian countries have made some struggles to prepare for sure calamities in the aftermath of major ones, such as cyclones in the case of Bangladesh and earthquakes in the case of Pakistan. However, continuing population growth and urbanization are increasing population density in disaster-prone areas. For example, an estimated 246 million people are expected to live in cyclone-prone areas by in the future. Primary cautionary and evacuation can decrease victims, although the danger to private property and public infrastructure remains high.
Furthermore, to emerging national disaster preparedness and relief mechanisms, it is critically important to improve domestic policy-making particularly in rural development. Meager infrastructure and urban development that disrespects the local environment aggravated many problems. Anyone who has spent time on India or Pakistan’s flooded streets during the monsoon season can testify that drainage systems have not received adequate attention from the countries’ planners. Planning is needed for local environment in a bid to avoid aggravating concerns like water scarcity, landslides, and urban flooding, and ensure that further development is both climate adaptive and resilient.
However, little has been done to address these problems by the SAARC. The Association signed the SAARC Convention on Cooperation on Environment in 2010, which was endorsed by all members and entered into force in October 2013. It identified 19 areas for cooperation; a Governing Council comprising the environment ministers of member states was tasked with implementation.
Multilateral agencies have delivered early support to Pakistan and launched donation efforts. Early in October, the UN raised its call for funding to help the country recover from the floods to USD 816 million. While these funds would be nowhere sufficient to cover the total losses the country has to bear, even this amount may prove difficult to mobilize. The UN has so far received only USD 90 million in response. In September, the World Bank said it is envisaging support of about USD 2 billion to aid various rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts. The Asian Development Bank has committed up to USD 2.5 billion.
Support from wealthy economies has been mixed. In contrast to the US (USD 66 million), China (USD 59 million), and the UK (USD 30 million), the EU has only provided about USD 2.28 million. Aid from other major economies is less clear. While countries like Germany provided rapid assistance and immediate food aid, it will take years to recover from the widespread devastation. Pakistan will need sustained aid once it begins reconstructing after the immediate humanitarian crisis is dealt with; it is not yet clear how much support it will receive during the later phase.
As the costs of recovering from extreme climate events increase in the future, it is uncertain how willing wealthy economies will be to endure helping developing economies. . On the international level, they must now collaborate to hold wealthy countries to fulfill their promises of delivering the climate finance they have promised so far for developing financial mechanisms to aid recovery and reconstruction at the upcoming COP27 meetings.
Global South countries have long been vocal about the historical responsibility of industrialized countries in causing global warming. It was their successful efforts in the past that helped enshrine the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibility in the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Despite committing to jointly mobilize USD 100 billion per year by 2020, developed countries continue to fall short of that goal.
Tense relations between countries in South Asia have held back mutual relations and multilateral institutions for too long. However, the political leadership of all countries in the region must acknowledge that the existential trials by climate change are far more significant than persistent ideological adversaries and territorial quarrels. Seven decades of hostility is enough. South Asian countries should do well to finally set aside their mutual hostilities and start developing regional cooperation to cope the climate change and early recover from natural catastrophes.