The ‘India Out’ campaign and China’s increasing influence in Maldives

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By TON Research Section

The Indian High Commission in Maldives is facing continuous ‘India Out’ campaign on social media platforms which has gained momentum in previous days. Indian High Commission while expressing concerns over the smear social media campaign had written to the government of Maldives asking for action and greater security. Indian High Commissioner Sunjay Sudhir said in his letter to the Foreign Ministry that these attacks were motivated, malicious, and increasingly personal. He said, “Such repeated attacks can affect the efficient performance of the functions of the High Commission and can damage the time-tested and mutually beneficial bilateral relations.” The letter further said that they were also aimed at inciting hatred and violence against India.

The ‘India Out’ campaign started last year in 2020 on-ground protests in Maldives and promptly moved to social media platforms. However, its origin dates back to the year 2013 when Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom of the Progressive Party (PPM) became president of Maldives. The PPM was considered by many as pro-China and anti-India which soared feelings in India. The pro-China policy adopted by then President Yameen was not acceptable for India as long India has considered Maldives in its sphere of influence.

Earlier in 2010 and 2015, India gifted two Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopters (ALF) to Maldives for the use in sea rescue operations, maritime weather surveillance for airlifting patients between islands. However, the PPM argued that the helicopters gifted by India marked the start of military presence in the country and it’s a secrete attempt of India to set up a naval base in Addu after which the Maldives government requested Indian government in 2016 to take back the helicopters but Indian government refused to take back the helicopters and denied the claims. Albeit, after two years the new government of Ibrahim Mohamed Solih overturn the orders and said to use those gifted choppers, which slowed down ‘India Out’ campaign in the country. Another reason of the ‘India Out’ campaign gaining momentum and prominence was that the bilateral agreements between both countries were not discussed in Parliament of Maldives due to which controversies were arisen.

Earlier, before the request of taking back helicopters, the Maldives government declined India’s invitation to participate in a naval exercise. Over the past few years the bilateral relations between India and Maldives nose-dived after Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen declared an emergency on 5th February. Undoubtedly, India has been one of the biggest players in the country so far. According to Reuters report after the emergency declared in Maldives on February 5th, Indian government sent troops to foil a coup in Maldives moreover, it moved aircraft and ships to its southern bases and put Special Forces on standby but the Indian Prime Minister Narendera Modi deferred and canceled the action in the end. Whereas, China considered this act not very kind and define it as foreign involvement in sovereign state. 

India has also been investing in Maldives with a firm eye on China. Indian government not only gifted two helicopters to Maldives but also stationed six pilots and over a dozen ground personnel to operate the ALHs and help the Maldivian National Defence Forces. India is also assisting Maldives in setting up 10 coastal surveillance radar system (CSRS) stations equipped with navigation radars, electro-optic sensors and AIS (automatic identification system) transponders. 

Maldives is positioned geographically as a gate linking western Indian Ocean chokepoints of the Gulf of Aden on one side and on the other hand the Strait of Hormuz therefore, these are of particular importance to India. The Indian Ocean is the key pathway for global trade. It is very much obvious that in efforts to limit China’s engagement in Maldives, India is struggling to bolster its position in the country because China’s presence in the region has the potential to hinder trade movement at these chokepoints that are vital to India’s economic interests.

Where India is investing on large scale in Maldives, China also sees Maldives as a key participant in its 21st century Maritime Silk Road plan in the Indian Ocean. China is investing millions of dollars on Belt and Road Initiative and it will not let any intervention of third party to damage it. Undoubtedly, India has been keeping a wary eye on China so that it could not let China build its inroads in South Asian countries especially in its own neighborhood but today; China’s presence in South Asian region has been stronger than that of India. It has been a worrying fact for India from long that Maldives has allowed China to muscle in economically, politically and most importantly strategically.

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