By Afshain Afzal

Sudden rise in prices especially fuel and key commodities has forced the nation to come to the streets. Due to tense law and order situation, Colombo has deployed military personnel at hundreds of petrol stations to help distribute fuel. Due to the shortages people are forced to stand in queue for hours, making the life of an ordinary citizen difficult. There are many city areas where people were seen fighting with each other over pity commodities.

The main reason behind the prevailing crisis is shortage of foreign exchange, which Sri Lanka use to earn mostly through tourism industry, was strong measures to control spread of pandemic COVID-19 and strict hostile anti-terrorism measures after the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks in 2019. Apperantly, the situation has been jointly created by India and United States of America in order to lead events that force the government to approach the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

It caused damage to economy as annual fiscal deficits exceeded 10 percent of GDP in 2020 and 2021, due to weak revenue performance in the wake of the pandemic, and expenditure measures to control pandemic and combat terrorism. On 25 February 2022, Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Sri Lanka. The Article IV entitles IMF to collect economic and financial information including central government debt, guaranteed debt, and the CBSL’s foreign liabilities, which is measured by the Colombo Consumer Price Index. Accordingly, IMF hold bilateral discussions with officials to reform country’s economic developments and policies.

Colombo financial experts recommended devaluation of currency but it further aggravated the situation. International experts opinioned that evaluation of its currency was a wise step of Sri Lanka. The IMF reforms would lead to further long term instability. In addition to worse economic situation, the security situation of Island nation is also deteriorating. Recently, after Chinese announcement of suspending its plan to build power plants on three Sri Lankan islands. The US and India are beating their chests as victory due to security concerns. India considers Sri Lanka, just across the narrow Palk Strait off India’s southeastern coast, to be within its sphere of influence. The island nation strategic location can be judged from the fact that the country is on a key sea route connecting East and West and is important to China’s ambitious “Belt and Road” global infrastructure initiative.

India also signed agreements on a Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre (MRCC) with a grant of $6 million from New Delhi. and a fisheries harbours in Sri Lanka, curriculum software in 200 schools in Galle district and between Sushma Swaraj Institute of Foreign Service and the Bandaranaike International Diplomatic Training Institute. In fact, India has shown hope to Sri Lanka for economic recovery and international coordination which paved way for forcing Colombo to agree on mutual security as well as discussions on long pending fishermen’s issues.

In another development, US Export-Import Bank’s board of directors voted to formalize the bank’s approval for financing and guarantee deals worth up to $381 million for three countries including Sri Lanka. American Citibank that backs a $500 million facility to allow 365 suppliers of aircraft maker Boeing to receive accelerated receivables payments related to export sales of Boeing aircraft. After wining of $56 million contract by Wabtec Corp, EXIM approved a $48 million loan guarantee to support the sale of 12 US made Wabtec Corp locomotives, acquired General Electric, to Sri Lanka Railways. The growing interest of US in Sri Lanka, led to Two defense cooperation agreements between the United States and Sri Lanka, the already signed Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) and the under-negotiation Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), Washington has also signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Sri Lanka.

In another recent development, Sri Lankan President has declared a state of emergency, giving unlimited powers to security forces, after hundreds tried to storm his house in anger over prevailing economic crisis. No doubt, the foreign aid would temporarily resolve the issue and improve security situation but it is neither the medium term nor long term solution. If we recall, Indian interference in Maldives led to country-wide protests and “Out India” campaign but Maldivian leadership seems divided over the issue. Sri Lanka is no exception as foreign interferences is likely to lead compromise of sovereignty and national integrity. It is easy to invite foreign interest groups to carryout investments but their expulsion is always a difficulty task.

By Afshain Afzal

With a just single incident of missile attack reported for whole 29^th March, the locals witnessed the halt of Russian attacks as sigh of relief. The Turkish Foreign Ministry confirming that the Tuesday, 29 March 2022 talks, were successful, the 30^th March direct talks are seen as a ray of hope. This time there was no publicity of the Turkish convening of new round of talks or beating of chest by either side, even the successful round conducted via video link was not given much coverage. Turkish mediation in the direct talks was successful as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy special assistant also confirmed without giving any further details that 30 March meeting will bring fruits. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was quoted to have said, “In talks with Russia in Turkey both sides agreed in principle on a cease-fire”.

In the Istanbul moot the peace agenda points have already been agreed upon. Withdrawal will start from Kyiv, Chernihiv and other locations.

The efforts of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are being appreciated by not only Moscow and Kyiv but internationally, President Erdogan is seen as “The man who averted World War”. A great human tragedy has been averted. The International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC) has flashed that an estimated 18 million people in Ukraine are needing humanitarian aid psot Russia’s invasion and their displacement from their homes. With the successful Istanbul talks and agreement on cease fire followed by gradual withdraw, the Jews, Christian and Muslims have expressed thanks to President Erdogan and recommended his name for “Noble Peace Award”.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy formally announced on 22 March 2022, that he is all prepared to ready to discuss possible deal with Russia after giving assurance of his country not joining NATO camp in exchange for a cease-fire and the withdrawal of Russian troops. Overnight Ukraine witnessed heaving bombing on port city of Mariupol. The bloody conflict has caused around 780 killed and scores injured. Moscow has welcomed the move but bombing continued when last reports came in. There are high hope of a deal before weekend. 

SIALKOT, 20 March 2022, TON: Huge series of explosions were witnessed on Sunday morning at Pakistan Army Ammunition Depot in Bhalan Wala, Sialkot. It is claimed that the ammunition depot was established in the year 1852 by the British Army. As per the earlier reports, “An unidentified object struck a Pakistan Army ammunition store in Sialkot which resulted in massive fire, triggering multiple explosions. Other source did not confirm about the flying object. The eye witnesses claimed the missiles caused civilian casualty as well as loss of properties. The district administration, however, was tight lipped about the loss of life. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) issued a statement post explosion, “On Sunday afternoon due to short-circuiting, an accidental fire broke out in an ammunition shed near Sialkot Garrison." The statement said, “There was no damage to property or loss of life due to effective and timely response. The damages were contained and the fire extinguished.” A Court of Inquiry has been ordered. 

According to an official of Rescue 1122, “Large fire and explosions rocked the Army depot near the cantonment area around 5:50 am. Fire brigade and Rescue 1122 reached the spot and extinguished the fire after several hours of efforts”.

Meanwhile, the personnel who made contact at ammunition storage site said, "Fire broke out due to short-circuiting and apparently an accidental fire broke out in one of the sheds near Sialkot Garrison." Sialkot District Police Officer (DPO) Umer Saeed Malik also said that the fire erupted early morning in the cantonment area after which several blasts happened. Although, the authorities did not discuss chances of missile attack or sabotage attempt by India but same cannot be ruled out. Satellite imageries is likely to highlight the causes of incident.

By Afshain Afzal
On the request of Turkish President Erdogany both side have agreed in principle to halt attacks and the start ceasefire negotiations but an agreement is still far away. Turkey has categorically rejected military action and is using its diplomacy to resolve the crisis. There is no doubt that Turkey has a big role to play and of course, deploying Turkish forces in conflict zone will further aggravate the situation. Earlier, Turkish Parliament passed resolution and agreed formally that Russia’s military operation against Ukraine is wrong, and that Ukraine’s territorial integrity should be ensured. Accordingly, Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement said, “We consider the military operation launched by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation against Ukraine unacceptable and reject it.”
While analysing the prevailing situation, it need to be comprehended that we cannot take Turkey as a NATO member alone as her status is much higher than her recognition as a NATO member. If we recall, in February 2020, during visit to Ukraine, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ukrainian President Zelensky signed an agreement on military-financial cooperation, in which Turkey allocated about US $ 36 million for the purchase of Turkish military and multi-purpose goods. Turkey is a power and has capacity to deploy its forces to become a party to conflict to save Muslim population. In addition, under the Montreux Convention of 1936, Turkey can limit Russian naval transit of its Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits during wartime but Turkey has not decided to do that and Russian ships's movement from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea would not be much affected. It is apparently that the United States’ and Western nations' stance over Ukrainian crisis is different from Turkey and Istanbul is not going to follow any dictated approach to the crisis.
In fact, Russia as well as the United States were aggrieved over Turkish involvement that empowers Muslim population in Ukraine as well its strategic links with the Ukrainian leadership. Russia is also cautious over Washington's direct interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine and has warned Kyiv many times not to destablize neighbourhood but interference increased. Finally, this led to friction and intervention with an aim to reach a promised agreement between Ukraine and Russia.Turkish military agreement with Ukraine coupled with Western media hysterical propaganda that painted picture if United States is trying to take over the stage of Ukrainian politics; from interference through the third country to direct plans, Russia was quick enough to position its troops at three major strategic avenues where Muslims were in high concentration. Eight Russian warships and two submarine entered Black Sea to show muscles.
NATO and the European nations made tall announcements of continuous supply of arms and ammunitions to the Ukrainian forces but these attempts were either not initialized nor materialized. Any shipment through sea could trigger World War - III, which US, NATO and West could not afford. From the very outset, not much was expected from the West. Military intervention to check Russian deployment in Ukraine was out of question but leaving Ukraine at the mercy of Russian soldiers was also not accepted. It was Uzbek Muslim from the neighbouring countries which ensured the continuity of arms and other supplies to Ukrainian forces, in order to bring Russian on negotiating table. Presently neither there are fears of full-scale battles nor chances of West jumping in the war across Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin defended the invasion of Ukraine, saying it was "going to plan". Russia made it clear that she would continue its campaign in Ukraine until it had fulfilled its goals. Earlies Moscow with the consent of Ukrainian President allowed truce to a level that set pockets for humanitarian corridors for the civilian evacuations. The term of truce was confirmed by Ukrainian Presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak.
Till now the only progress is that negotiators from both Ukraine and Russia have agreed to create “humanitarian corridors” to let citizens escape the fighting. Earlier rounds of talks between Ukraine and Russia failed and an attempt this weekend is also likely not to gain much. Now Turkey has the main role to play in Ukraine and in the same regard Ukrainian leadership are schedule to hold talks in Turkey early next week. Venue has been set at Antalya, Turkey where Russian and Ukrainian ministers would hold peace negotiations. An honest opinion that it seems that all were on one side to expel many immigrants who had settled in Ukraine from other countries since decades. Although exagurated figures were reflected everywhere about the refugees but several thousands refugees from Ukraine are sufferings while the onus of this human catastrophe rest on Russia.

By Afshain Afzal
Since long Russia had been resisting Western and NATO expansion and as a rollback of previous expansion, it has very dangerous plans. It did not surprise many when Russian President Vladimir Putin took decision to launch an attack on a sovereign state Ukraine on Thursday, 24 February 2022, after recognizing two separatist areas in eastern Ukraine as independent states. It was a US-India joint venture in which orchestra was played by Israel and Britain. Pope Francis said that "increasingly alarming scenarios" are emerging in Ukraine and he urged all sides to refrain from actions and make a serious examination of conscience before God about any actions they might take which could cause suffering to the people in the region. He called celebration of Easter which begins on "Ash Wednesday", 2 March 2020, as an international day of fasting and prayer for peace. It will be followed by Muslims' holy month of Ramadan a month later. World is reacting so calm as nothing as happened. There are no NATO Fighters aircrafts preparing for a dog fights or American and Western Air Defence systems and jammers in near vicinity. It seems that it a global joint venture in which there is human suffering, especially the Ukrainian Muslims are targeted.
In a televised address, Putin described Ukraine as an integral part of Russia’s history and said eastern Ukraine was ancient Russian lands and that he was confident that the Russian people would support his decision.He said that Ukraine never had a tradition of genuine statehood and complained that post-Soviet Ukraine had wanted everything it could from Moscow without doing anything in return. Putin’s formal recognition of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic signaled an end to a seven-year-old peace deal known as the Minsk agreement. The recognition of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk territories of eastern Ukraine has a Muslim population is about 800,000. Currently, all the migrants to foreign countries make a vast population who are eager to return, The internally displaced Muslims from the occupied territories have official IDP [internally displaced persons] status and the right to get social support in terms of special state programs.
With a hope to win global recognition as potential Permanent member of United Nations Security Council, India abstained on a United Nations Security Council resolution by the United States of America that "deplores in the strongest terms" Russia's aggression" against Ukraine. Apparently the Defence Intelligence Agencies of the US and India jointly planned some moves. As planned, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and sought India's political support at the UN Security Council to stop Russia's military offensive against his country. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's in his tweet said, "More than 100,000 invaders are on our land. They insidiously fire on residential buildings. Urged India to give us political support in UN Security Council. Stop the aggressor together!" Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba spoke to his Indian counterpart S Jaishankar and sought India's support to a UN Security Council. Kuleba urged Jaishankar to use India's influence over Russia to force it to cease "military aggression" against Ukraine besides supporting the UN resolution.
The 15-nation Security Council voted on the draft resolution by the US and Albania and co-sponsored by a "cross-regional" group of 67 UN member states, including Australia, Estonia, Finland, Georgia, Germany, Italy, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Romania and the United Kingdom. The resolution was blocked since permanent member Russia as President of the Security Council for the month of February used its veto. The resolution received 11 votes in favour by Albania, Brazil, France, Gabon, Ghana, Ireland, Kenya, Mexico, Norway, the UK and the US while three nations India, China and the UAE abstained. “The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, in line with its foreign policy of neutrality, calls on both sides of the conflict to resolve the crisis through dialogue and peaceful means.” The government expressed concern over the protection of lives of Afghan students and migrants in Ukraine.
Where the United Nations Organization is a silent observer, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has plans to enhance humanitarian assistance to the people of Ukraine. The world body has demanded US $ 1bn for aid operations in Ukraine over the next three months as a result of Russia’s attack. However, it failed to prevent the war or condemn aggression. In other developments, the Western world including USA, France, Germany and Britain have imposed new sanctions of Russia to encompass “national measures to freeze the financial assets of Russian figures”. The EU Council President Charles Michel has announced that European Union will facilitate the delivery of military aid to Ukraine. He said, “I will propose a package of emergency assistance for the Ukrainian armed forces, to support them in their heroic fight". Meanwhile, the French President France said that will send more military equipment, as well as fuel, to Ukraine to help fight off the Russian invasion. Holland has announced that the government will supply 50 Panzerfaust-3 anti-tank weapons and 400 rockets.
Where the international players expect that a bulk of Ukrainian population should move in different refugees' camps around the world, Western world started media campaign much ahead of event that call Kyiv to work with international partners and INGOs to ensure that Russian-origin Muslims and other immigrants are fairly vetted in the asylum system and protected against deportation or extradition based on false claims and handed over to foreign governments. It is propagated that they may subject them to abuses and human right violations. There is no doubt, that the Indian origin Patel conspiracy that emerged from Haifa, Israel spread all over the Muslim world as well as handful of Indian agents and fifth columnists in Pakistan and Middle East played a dirty role in dragging the peaceful population of Central Asian countries to this level. Pumping in deadly weapons by the Western and Indians players from Poland and Bulgaria into Belarus and Ukraine and aggression itself, it is high time to reform UNO on the basis of equality and justice as it has lost its capacity to deal with open deviations by States to act as civilized humans.