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Afshain Afzal
By Afshain Afzal
The good offices of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has worked well for the peace in the Russian- Ukraine conflict. In a big surprise, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could not believe Russian move of withdrawal despite Western propaganda of Russian strategy to trap Ukrainian forces. Transport aircrafts and military vehicles were seen withdrawing Russian troops. In a video address two days back, Ukrainian President Zelensky urged residents to wait to resume their normal lives as there can be danger of mines all around
There was visible withdrawal of Russian troops concentration from Mariupol, Kyiv and Chernihiv. Witnesses confirmed Russian withdrawal from the north of Ukraine and many other parts. Media reports confirmed that since 1 April, Russian military personnel in unions are withdrawing back outside the Ukrainian territory including Belarus. An International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) team which traveled to Mariupol confirmed about their access to the local population.
The High Commissioner of Refugees has confirmed that thousands of Ukrainian refugees from Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary and Russian Federation have started returning to their homes in Ukraine. The website of UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) regarding Ukraine Refugee situation still reflect the figure of 4,215, 047 on 3 April 2022, which is not correct. Witnesses says that those refugees who have received cash assistance from UNHCR have preferred returning to Ukraine.
Acceptance of cease fire and withdrawal by Russian forces on the orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to the solo efforts of Turkish President Recep Tayyip. Turkish efforts have been appreciated throughout the world as it averted the world from witnessing a major tragedy.
Current situation of Pakistan:
Pakistan's President Dr Arif Alvi on 3 April 2022, dissolved the National Assembly on the advice of Prime Minister Imran Khan under Article 58(1) of the constitution of Pakistan, 1973.
Earlier, the no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan was dismissed abruptly on Sunday 3 April 2022, after National Assembly Deputy Speaker Qasim Suri termed it "unconstitutional", saying that it was backed by "foreign powers" He disallowed voting on the no-trust motion and adjourned the session for an indefinite period. Former Law and Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry read out Article 5 of the Constitution and accused the Opposition of "disloyalty to the state."
Legal Questions:-
Can a new Prime Minister be elected in the same session?
New prime minister cannot be elected in the same session because Under Article 58(2) of the Constitution, upon passing of the vote of no-confidence against the current premier, a separate session of the National Assembly is to be called. The sole purpose of the session is then to ascertain whether another member of the National Assembly commands the confidence of the majority.
Can the speaker of the assembly delay the session to elect a new Prime Minister?
The speaker of the assembly cannot delay the session to elect a new prime minister because after passing the vote of no-confidence, the summoning of the session to elect a new premier is the collective responsibility of the National Assembly.
Rule 32 of the Rules of Business stipulates that "whenever the office of the Prime Minister falls vacant for any reason, the assembly shall, to the exclusion of any other business, proceed to elect without debate one of its Muslim members to be the prime minister". Provided: According to the procedures, the opposition may move requisition for this purpose and the speaker is bound to act upon it.
Can the president request a prime minister, against whom a vote of no-confidence has been passed, to continue in office under Article 94 till a successor is chosen?
No, because under the procedures stipulated in Article 95, the prime minister ceases to hold office immediately after the passing of the vote of no-confidence. The president does not have the authority to request the prime minister to continue. The option to resume is reserved for those who resign themselves or call for a dissolution of the National Assembly.
According to Rule 38 of the Rules of Business further clarifies the situation mandating that when a resolution of no-confidence is passed, the speaker shall forthwith intimate the result to the president and the secretary shall cause a notification to be published in the Gazette.
Can Article 248 falls under this prevailing situation?
Article 248 is related to the Protection of President, Governor, Minister, etc. According to this Article, it will protect President and Prime minister in a situation where they exercise their rights lawfully, so as per the prevailing situation, Article 248 did not protect the Prime minister as he violated Article 58(1) and amounts to high treason.
Conclusion:
According to my point of view, Imran Khan`s advice to President to dissolve National Assembly is a violation of the Constitution. The Government has violated the Constitution by not allowing voting on the no-confidence motion. As deputy speaker, Qasim Suri dissolved the assembly on a basis of Article 5 of the constitution of Pakistan which says that it is the basic duty of every citizen to show loyalty to the State and show some obedience towards the state but on the other hand Article 58 provides that:
"Prime Minister" shall not be construed to include reference to a Prime Minister against whom a notice of a resolution for a vote of no-confidence has been given in the National Assembly but has not been voted upon or against whom such a resolution has been passed or who is continuing in office after his resignation or after the dissolution of the National Assembly.
According to this article Prime minister does not has any right to dissolve the assembly so he is liable for the violation of the constitution which amounts to high treason.
Imran Khan is liable for high treason in a following manner:
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He recognizes the martial law
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He violates the constitution of Pakistan
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Act of deputy Speaker is illegal and it is amount to high treason.
Therefore, If any act or order is a nullity in law, it is considered void ab initio and any proceedings flowing from it are also void. A nullity can't be perpetuated. The prime minister’s right to seek dissolution of assemblies via the President ceases to exist till a motion of vote of confidence is pending vote.
Dismissing the motion under Article 5 was unconstitutional and through that, the premier assuming the right to ask the President to dissolve the Assembly is also void. Furthermore, the Deputy Speaker dismissing the motion under Article 5 is also a charge sheet against the 86 parliamentarians, who had presented the motion that they are acting against the interest of Pakistan.
Supreme Court's Action:
"The court not only can, but must intervene," the SC will likely declare the Speaker's ruling illegal, which in turn, would strike down the President's action to dissolve the National Assembly. If the Supreme Court accepts that the Assembly stands dissolved and elections should take place, it would in effect be validating prevailing unconstitutional proceedings. The SC will most likely reverse all proceedings and direct for the no-trust motion to be put to vote in line with Constitution.
By Afshain Afzal
Sudden rise in prices especially fuel and key commodities has forced the nation to come to the streets. Due to tense law and order situation, Colombo has deployed military personnel at hundreds of petrol stations to help distribute fuel. Due to the shortages people are forced to stand in queue for hours, making the life of an ordinary citizen difficult. There are many city areas where people were seen fighting with each other over pity commodities.
The main reason behind the prevailing crisis is shortage of foreign exchange, which Sri Lanka use to earn mostly through tourism industry, was strong measures to control spread of pandemic COVID-19 and strict hostile anti-terrorism measures after the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks in 2019. Apperantly, the situation has been jointly created by India and United States of America in order to lead events that force the government to approach the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
It caused damage to economy as annual fiscal deficits exceeded 10 percent of GDP in 2020 and 2021, due to weak revenue performance in the wake of the pandemic, and expenditure measures to control pandemic and combat terrorism. On 25 February 2022, Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Sri Lanka. The Article IV entitles IMF to collect economic and financial information including central government debt, guaranteed debt, and the CBSL’s foreign liabilities, which is measured by the Colombo Consumer Price Index. Accordingly, IMF hold bilateral discussions with officials to reform country’s economic developments and policies.
Colombo financial experts recommended devaluation of currency but it further aggravated the situation. International experts opinioned that evaluation of its currency was a wise step of Sri Lanka. The IMF reforms would lead to further long term instability. In addition to worse economic situation, the security situation of Island nation is also deteriorating. Recently, after Chinese announcement of suspending its plan to build power plants on three Sri Lankan islands. The US and India are beating their chests as victory due to security concerns. India considers Sri Lanka, just across the narrow Palk Strait off India’s southeastern coast, to be within its sphere of influence. The island nation strategic location can be judged from the fact that the country is on a key sea route connecting East and West and is important to China’s ambitious “Belt and Road” global infrastructure initiative.
India also signed agreements on a Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre (MRCC) with a grant of $6 million from New Delhi. and a fisheries harbours in Sri Lanka, curriculum software in 200 schools in Galle district and between Sushma Swaraj Institute of Foreign Service and the Bandaranaike International Diplomatic Training Institute. In fact, India has shown hope to Sri Lanka for economic recovery and international coordination which paved way for forcing Colombo to agree on mutual security as well as discussions on long pending fishermen’s issues.
In another development, US Export-Import Bank’s board of directors voted to formalize the bank’s approval for financing and guarantee deals worth up to $381 million for three countries including Sri Lanka. American Citibank that backs a $500 million facility to allow 365 suppliers of aircraft maker Boeing to receive accelerated receivables payments related to export sales of Boeing aircraft. After wining of $56 million contract by Wabtec Corp, EXIM approved a $48 million loan guarantee to support the sale of 12 US made Wabtec Corp locomotives, acquired General Electric, to Sri Lanka Railways. The growing interest of US in Sri Lanka, led to Two defense cooperation agreements between the United States and Sri Lanka, the already signed Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) and the under-negotiation Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), Washington has also signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Sri Lanka.
In another recent development, Sri Lankan President has declared a state of emergency, giving unlimited powers to security forces, after hundreds tried to storm his house in anger over prevailing economic crisis. No doubt, the foreign aid would temporarily resolve the issue and improve security situation but it is neither the medium term nor long term solution. If we recall, Indian interference in Maldives led to country-wide protests and “Out India” campaign but Maldivian leadership seems divided over the issue. Sri Lanka is no exception as foreign interferences is likely to lead compromise of sovereignty and national integrity. It is easy to invite foreign interest groups to carryout investments but their expulsion is always a difficulty task.
By Afshain Afzal
With a just single incident of missile attack reported for whole 29th March, the locals witnessed the halt of Russian attacks as sigh of relief. The Turkish Foreign Ministry confirming that the Tuesday, 29 March 2022 talks, were successful, the 30th March direct talks are seen as a ray of hope. This time there was no publicity of the Turkish convening of new round of talks or beating of chest by either side, even the successful round conducted via video link was not given much coverage. Turkish mediation in the direct talks was successful as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy special assistant also confirmed without giving any further details that 30 March meeting will bring fruits. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was quoted to have said, “In talks with Russia in Turkey both sides agreed in principle on a cease-fire”.
In the Istanbul moot the peace agenda points have already been agreed upon. Withdrawal will start from Kyiv, Chernihiv and other locations.
The efforts of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are being appreciated by not only Moscow and Kyiv but internationally, President Erdogan is seen as “The man who averted World War”. A great human tragedy has been averted. The International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC) has flashed that an estimated 18 million people in Ukraine are needing humanitarian aid psot Russia’s invasion and their displacement from their homes. With the successful Istanbul talks and agreement on cease fire followed by gradual withdraw, the Jews, Christian and Muslims have expressed thanks to President Erdogan and recommended his name for “Noble Peace Award”.
By Afshain Afzal
This Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy again stressed on the point that negotiations are the potential path to end the war. Earlier, he clearly spelled out, “If there is just a 1% chance for us to stop this war, I think that we need to take this chance”. Since few weeks there are political changes noticed in the country’s demography as new faces were seen in the streets of different cities. One local said, Hezbollah loyalists along the side of Russian are are fighting against Ukrainians, especially in the port city of Mariupol.
In a systematic move, NATO is working out plans to enforce No-Fly Zone over and around Ukraine and demilitarize Bosporus. In the recent development, Turkey detected and neutralized a mine-like object at the mouth of the Bosporus Strait from Northern side; Moscow claims that these may be old mines that had drifted out to sea after breaking off from cables near Ukrainian ports. If true it set a warning that mines and other traps have been set all along the entrances to Ukrainian ports. Whatever, the case may be, it is a case fit as additional evidences of threat to international peace that may allow US and NATO to win United Nations Security Council mandate to enforce o-Fly Zone over and around Ukraine and demining and sweeping operations around the Bosporus and the Black Sea. In case Bosporus is blocked, the wheat and other supplies to Middle Eastern nations would create food shortage, which depended on their exports.
A pre-recorded video speech by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy shared on social media reflected Ukraine’s intention of joining the 27-nation European Union group. It said, "Our goal is to be with all Europeans and, most importantly, to be equal. I'm sure that's fair. I am sure we deserve it," He said, “Europeans are witnessing how our soldiers are fighting not only for our country, but for all of Europe, for peace, for peace for all, for all the countries of the European Union." Presidents of Eastern European countries including Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia signed a letter on 28 February 2022, recommending “Ukraine deserves receiving an immediate EU accession perspective." German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in a statement in reaction to video, “Ukraine is part of the "house of Europe" in which it is welcome. .. Ukraine's accession would not signal that the EU wished to partition it off from Russia but would reflect a desire to fulfill the wish of many Ukrainians to join”. The question arises if Ukraine is given European Union membership in an emergency, where will EU standards through reforms in several policy areas will go. On contrary, if not done NATO would be on weaker side as regard to the legitimacy of their operations involving Belarus and other vantage points.
This Saturday Ukrainian President appealed at Qatar’s Doha Forum, "I ask you to increase the output of energy to ensure that everyone in Russia understands that no one can use energy as a weapon to blackmail the world." In another front taking benefit of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, Azerbaijani units marched into the zone of responsibility of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation in Nagorno-Karabakh. There are high changes of renewed fighting in case the ceasefire between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia in 2020, is violated. The foot prints of the Christian fighters have already been questioned by Russia. Two days back Russian President Vladimir Putin talked to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian on phone to discuss the situation and request that Azerbaijani armed forces should withdraw to their initial agreed positions.
Meanwhile, the United States of America has approved US $13.6 billion in emergency aid for Ukraine as part of national security program. Interestingly, in the name of emergency aid, major chunk would go intelligence community across the globe of hybrid influence operations and Pentagon under the head costs of deploying American troops to allies in Eastern Europe. The document mentions weapons Washington has already sent to the government of President Zelenskyy before the war and aid to six other groups. The remaining small portion of aid would be dedicated for emergency food assistance and health care to Ukrainian refugees in the camps in various the region. In nutshell, the Ukrainian would get noting or mere peanuts out of US $13.6 billion in emergency aid for Ukraine.
Where the US, NATO and other nations have adopted a neutral path, Turkey, on ground, is playing the role of policeman and peacekeeper of Eastern Europe. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has adopted the role of de facto United Nations Organization. There is not doubt, that Ankara is trying her best to bring Russia and Ukraine to President-level table talks but the media operations exaggerating the security situation as well as creating suspicion has brought the world to the brink of a regional war. The United Nations Secretary General must put a ban on irresponsible statements by world powers and organizations as well as media propaganda and negotiate for the return of thousands of Ukrainian refugees back to their homeland. This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy formally announced on 22 March 2022, that he is all prepared to ready to discuss possible deal with Russia after giving assurance of his country not joining NATO camp in exchange for a cease-fire and the withdrawal of Russian troops. Overnight Ukraine witnessed heaving bombing on port city of Mariupol. The bloody conflict has caused around 780 killed and scores injured. Moscow has welcomed the move but bombing continued when last reports came in. There are high hope of a deal before weekend.
SIALKOT, 20 March 2022, TON: Huge series of explosions were witnessed on Sunday morning at Pakistan Army Ammunition Depot in Bhalan Wala, Sialkot. It is claimed that the ammunition depot was established in the year 1852 by the British Army. As per the earlier reports, “An unidentified object struck a Pakistan Army ammunition store in Sialkot which resulted in massive fire, triggering multiple explosions. Other source did not confirm about the flying object. The eye witnesses claimed the missiles caused civilian casualty as well as loss of properties. The district administration, however, was tight lipped about the loss of life. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) issued a statement post explosion, “On Sunday afternoon due to short-circuiting, an accidental fire broke out in an ammunition shed near Sialkot Garrison." The statement said, “There was no damage to property or loss of life due to effective and timely response. The damages were contained and the fire extinguished.” A Court of Inquiry has been ordered.
According to an official of Rescue 1122, “Large fire and explosions rocked the Army depot near the cantonment area around 5:50 am. Fire brigade and Rescue 1122 reached the spot and extinguished the fire after several hours of efforts”.
Meanwhile, the personnel who made contact at ammunition storage site said, "Fire broke out due to short-circuiting and apparently an accidental fire broke out in one of the sheds near Sialkot Garrison." Sialkot District Police Officer (DPO) Umer Saeed Malik also said that the fire erupted early morning in the cantonment area after which several blasts happened. Although, the authorities did not discuss chances of missile attack or sabotage attempt by India but same cannot be ruled out. Satellite imageries is likely to highlight the causes of incident.
By Afshain Afzal
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s close relations with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy led to his continuous efforts to resolve Russo-Ukrainian conflict. This week it has borne fruit both the countries allowed Turkish President to mediate to resolve the deadlock and the Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning meeting his Ukrainian counterpart. In an earlier statement Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he is negotiating with Russian officials and is waiting for a decisive meeting with President Vladimir Putin. Officials confirmed, Moscow has agreed in principle to organize a video conference between the two leaders but is hesitant in announcing confirm-timing, “It is on the table and not yet announced,” said official who wanted to retain his anonymity.
Earlier, Ukrainian negotiator and presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak made a statement in public about his optimism that soon world with see good news in the shape of Russo-Ukraine new agreement. However, same could not be confirmed from Ukrainian Ministry of Defence. A breakthrough came when two weeks back both countries agreed to exchange prisoners. Russia also exchange some of the foreign fighters of Turkish and Uzbek origin from the neighbouring states.
From the start of the conflict in February 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had been repeatedly requesting NATO to impose no-flying zone but all in vain. One senior official at Ukrainian Ministry of Defence said that the United States and its other allies fears affects of the war beyond the conflict zone which may threaten many western nations. Close aids to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that we have neither surrendered nor we will ever move to that direction. Praising the Muslims of Ukraine and refugees from the neighbourhood, the aide claimed, “we are proud strong nation.”
Meanwhile, there were protest all over Russia and Ukraine against the Russian illegal deployment. The anti-war groups and masses in general launched protests, carrying out placards and chanting slogans in various languages in St. Petersburg and other cities against the “War”. There is an immense pressure on the Russia leadership to withdraw troops by the end of next month. One official confirmed total withdrawal after the agreement and ruled out plans to carryout referendum in Kherson. He clarified, “if we are given confirmation of non-interference from Western and NATO nations, there is no reason to prolong deployment other than handful of advisors.” It is time that all the nations of the world, World Organization (UNO) and other organizations must struggle for restoration of peace in Ukraine rather than adding fueling to the fire by supping arms and ammunition.
By Afshain Afzal
Over one and a half hour hot talks between Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, and Foreign Minister of Ukrainian Dmytro Kuleba left a lot of hopes. As the meeting was not for a discussion on a cease-fire but to frame the issues. A single main demand from Moscow was, "Legal assurances that Ukraine will never join NATO". On the other hand Ukrainian Foreign Minister made it very clear to Moscow that the Ukrainian nation is not impressed by Russian illegal occupation, "I want to repeat that Ukraine has not surrendered, does not surrender, and will not surrender," said Dmytro Kuleba .
Western media claimed that Russo-Ukraine talks brooked by Turkey have ended in failure as there is no commitment with regard to progress on agreeing a cease-fire or safe passage for civilians. In fact, Ukraine’s proposal for a 24-hour cease-fire was not agreed upon by Russia on the plea that unless Ukraine meets all the demands there will be no ceasefire or withdrawal. One interesting thing did happen was that the that Russian Foreign Minister claimed that he was not in a position to authorize any kind of agreement on a cease-fire, “there are other decision-makers on this matter". The Russian side in a carefully crafted diplomatic statement said, "President Vladimir Putin would not refuse a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy to discuss specific issues".
The message from Moscow to is quite loud and clear that President Vladimir Putin is ready to discuss the issues with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Earlier, Washington termed Russian invasion of Ukraine barbaric and European Union Commission termed it inhuman, cruel and tragic act. At the United Nation Organization forum not much is expected as the Veto power by Russia would fail any move. Now the only hope is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who was able to pave path of peace in the first round of Russo-Ukraine Antalya talks and next move is direct talks between the President of Russia and Ukraine, which Moscow announced in principle at the Thursday's meeting. Let us wait and see for peace.
By Afshain Afzal
Russia and Ukraine are meeting face to face on the sidelines of Antalya Diplomacy Forum that is scheduled to be held on March 11-13 in Antalya, Turkey. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba would be in Antalya on 10 March 2022. Both side are positive to make way toward resolution of the deadlock. At least 120 people have been killed and scores injured since 24 February. UN figures on 8 March claimed 364 killed and 759 injured in Ukraine since Russia launched attack on Ukraine. UNHCR reported More than 1.7 million people have fled Ukraine to neighboring countries.
Russian President Vladimir Putin while accepting Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan expressed high hopes for a peaceful solution that guarantee non-interference from the West in the internal affairs of Russian neighbourhood. Both Russia and Ukraine have high hope that allow Turkish mediations a success story. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba have agreed to meet at Antalya, Turkey on 10 March 2022, there are important agenda points made public so far. It starts from unconditional ceasefire to non-interference from the West in the internal affairs of Central Asia Republic.
Russia is denying that it has invaded Ukraine and dubbed deployment of troops as "special military operation". The Russian misadventure focuses assurance of continuity of Russian defence, trade, energy, visit of millions of Russian tourists every year to Ukraine. Because of the interference of other countries, things got spoiled, however, meeting in Turkey seems only hope of successful dialogue and move forward toward peace and stability. Using humanitarian corridors, twenty-three trucks of humanitarian aid has been send by Turkey to civilians in the conflict zones.
In another development Washington has backed out from NATO's proposal of involving its Fighter jets in Ukraine. Pentagon turned down proposal to station two squardons of its MiG-29 fighter at US airbase in Germany as these may be used to defend Europe in case war broke beyond Ukraine. It is being quoted that Pentagon had no option as German Foreign Minister did not agree to involve German soil for the deployment of Fighter jets to counter Russia. There was one proposal that United States should move its aircrafts for the purpose which Washington did not agree. In fact, there is complete disharmony over central decision including using NATO base in Germany to fly aircrafts and drones from German airspace to target Russian deployment in Ukraine raises.
